This is your Commodore Speaking,
February has been a month of boat projects. I cleaned and sanded the teak toe rail that runs along the outer edge of the deck. I also made several trips to the tip top of our 72’ mast to replace the anchor light and repair my custom PVC bridge “curb feeler” that extends out in front and above the mast tip. Since our mast height is so close to the 73’ ICW bridge height in our area, we are very sensitive to bridge clearance. The consequences of hitting a bridge with our mast could likely result in the mast failing and come crashing down on the boat deck. So that small piece of insurance really reduces the likelihood of getting into that situation.
I use this as a transition to relate how NASA assesses and manages risk in human spaceflight and how you can apply it with your personal boat operations. Loss of vehicle and loss of human life are the most catastrophic failures for NASA spaceflight. The consequences could mean the end of that NASA program as did the Space Shuttle STS-107 Columbia disaster in February, 2003.
Risk managed failures are evaluated and debated in terms of likelihood and consequences. What is the likelihood of the failure (aka “hazard”) and, if it occurs, what are the consequences. NASA has a very robust process of identifying system failures and assessing the consequences. They use a 5 x 5 Likelihood vs Consequences grid (1 being least and 5 being most) to map the hazard. System design strives to keep risk out of the red and closer to the green. Many times that means additional design cost such as redundant devices or systems to bring the risk level down.
Let’s look at your boat engine as an example. Typical system failures you may (will) encounter are cooling and fuel flow related such as clogged fuel filters and failed impellers. Less likely are thru-hull seacocks and fuel and water pumps (long life or more reliable). Even less likely may be mechanical failures; however, as the system ages, those less likely failures can now increase in likelihood. You can mitigate (reduce the likelihood) of many failures through routine servicing. Unfortunately, Murphy’s Law says the failure will happen at the most unfortunate time. For sailors heading offshore, a unique set of man overboard hazards exist that can, and should be mitigated.
Take some time to review each system on your boat and identify where a potential hazard could exist. Then ask yourself what the consequences of the failure would be in the area you will be operating (in the ICW, offshore at night, etc.). Not just the major ones but also those that could impact your quality of life such as the hot water heater or fresh water pump. Plan ahead to identify how you would respond.
Before you go out and spend a bunch of money on spares for every possible failure, always consider the likelihood of the failure and the consequences if it were to occur; use the 5 x 5 risk matrix. Sometimes you have to spend a little green to stay in the green.
See you on the water.
Bryan Austin
TMCA Commodore, 2020